U.S. presidential election, 2008 |
The 2008 election for President of the
United States is scheduled to occur November 4, 2008.
The shape of presidential battles
Though many candidates seek election to the presidency, recent elections have revolved around the dominant Democratic and Republican parties, though the Green, Libertarian, and Reform parties have all arguably been deciding factors in the last three presidential elections.
The outcome of the 2004 presidential
election will begin shaping the nature of the 2008 race, the selection of candidates, the central issues, and the policy
platforms.
Scenarios
Generally speaking, there are two scenarios for the 2004 election and beyond that will shape the 2008 electoral field: a
victory for George W. Bush and a defeat. While there are, of course,
other possibilities involving catastrophic events, assassinations, and so forth, the unpredictability of these occurrences
removes them from the scope of this article.
Scenario 1: A Bush defeat in 2004
A defeat for sitting president George W. Bush would change the shape of the 2008 election profoundly. If John Kerry (the Democrats' presumptive nominee) wins the presidency in 2004, he would have four years to shape public policy and
would be the likely candidate for the party, should he choose to run, in 2008. In practical terms, it would mean that defeated
Democratic candidates in 2004, and those who chose not to enter the race, could well find themselves having to focus their
presidential ambitions on the 2012 election rather than 2008, by which time new party
figures, congressmen, senators and governors, might have eclipsed them in profile. A victory for John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election could also end the prospects of Hillary Clinton becoming a candidate in 2008. By 2012, her presidential
prospects might have been overshadowed by newer Democratic politicians such as John Edwards, the Vice-President in the event of a Kerry Victory in 2004, who would logically be the front
runner.
For Bush, a defeat would open up the prospect, if he chose, of seeking to become the party candidate in 2008. However, no
ex-president since Teddy Roosevelt has sought the office after leaving it, and in the entire
history of the United States Grover Cleveland is the only president
to successfully "win back" his office after losing it. Bush's defeat in 2004 could enable the Republicans to adopt a policy
platform dramatically different from his in the 2008 election. Without an incumbent candidate for president, Republicans would
have wide freedom in nominating their 2008 candidate. Regardless, the Republican party would likely be galvanized in opposition
to the policies of four years of a Democratic president.
Scenario 2: A Bush victory in 2004
The re-election of George W. Bush in 2004 would produce a
non-incumbent election; that is, one in which a sitting president is not a candidate. In 2008, Bush would be constitutionally
prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the U.S. Constitution. In several previous eight-year administrations, the incumbent vice
president has gone on to run for president at the end of the eight years (for example, Dwight D. Eisenhower's vice president Richard Nixon in the 1960 election, Ronald Reagan's
vice president George H. W. Bush in the 1988 election and Bill Clinton's vice president Al Gore
in the 2000 election).
However, current Vice
President Richard Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run
for President, making him the first Vice President since Spiro Agnew to have
no presidential ambition. This has led to rumors that Cheney will be replaced as vice president at some point to establish
someone else as an "heir apparent" for the Republicans in 2008.
Regardless, depending on the success or otherwise of eight years of the Bush presidency, the Republicans would have the option of
running a candidate promising to continue Bush's policy, a candidate who repudiated Bush's policies and promoted a different
policy agenda, or someone who followed some but not all of the Bush political platform and agenda.
For the Democrats, a Bush re-election in 2004 would give them in 2008 a broad freedom to choose a candidate and platform
unencumbered by having their own sitting president seeking re-election.
Timeline
Candidates of the Democratic,
Green, Libertarian, Republican and possibly other parties will
begin making their plans known in early 2005.
Candidates: The lessons from history
Predictions as to who will be a major party's candidate in the 2008 election are difficult to make. Past selections suggest
that the Democrats and Republicans will likely look to a present or former president or vice-president, Senator or
Representative, or state governor. The last candidate from one of the two major parties who had not previously served in one of
the elective offices listed above was General Dwight D.
Eisenhower who won the Republican nomination and ultimately the presidency in the 1952 election.
In recent years, electoral success has favored Governors. Of the last five Presidents (Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill
Clinton, George W. Bush), only George H.W. Bush was never Governor
of a state. Geographically, these Presidents were all from either very large states (California, Texas) or from a state south of the Mason-Dixon Line and east of Texas (Georgia, Arkansas).
The last sitting U.S. Senator elected President was John F.
Kennedy in 1960.
A major turnover in each of these offices will occur in presidential, gubernatorial, and congressional elections due in
2004, 2006, and 2008, which could see new potential challengers emerging or present challengers facing new circumstance.
Among the past upsets and unexpected candidates were the following:
- Many people pridicted that the presidential election of 1936 was going to be a close election. But the results show that
President Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Kansas Governor Alf Landon in a landslide.
- President Harry S. Truman was widely predicted to lose the 1948
election, with Thomas Dewey seen as the certain victor. However, this was
based on telephone polling at a time when there was a statistically very significant proportion of the population who did not
have telephones, and who generally favoured Truman.
- Following his defeat in the 1960
election, few imagined that Richard Nixon would become the Republican
nominee, let alone the Republican victor, in the 1968 election, nor were they prepared for the shock assassination of Senator Robert Kennedy and the
decision of President Lyndon Johnson to drop out of the 1968 race. The
assassination, dropping out, and re-entering of Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon, respectively, threw up an electoral battle that was
unexpected by anyone.
- In the 1972, Senator Edward
Kennedy was widely predicted as destined to be the Democratic candidate in either 1976
or 1980. In fact, after a shortlived attempt to seek the Democratic nomination in the
1980 election, Kennedy never
again sought the presidency.
- No one predicted that the 1976
presidential election would involve Gerald Ford, Nixon's unexpected
replacement as incumbent president, and Governor Jimmy Carter.
- Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis and Bill
Clinton were not predicted to be candidates until their challenges were launched, even though Reagan had sought the
nomination in 1976.
- It was confidently predicted in the late 1980s that Mario Cuomo would be Democratic candidate in the 1992 election, with few even aware of Bill Clinton.
- Few political commentators were prepared for the initial, shock successes of Senator Gary Hart in challenging Walter Mondale for the Democratic nomination in 1984 because he was seen as a likely
nominee for the 1988
election.
- George H. W. Bush was seen by many as unbeatable in the year
prior to the 1992 presidential
election.
- Howard Dean held commanding leads in both fundraising and opinion polls
during the months prior to the Democratic primaries in the 2004 presidential election, but his campaign fizzled after stunning surges from John Kerry and John Edwards in
the weeks prior to the earliest primaries.
The failure of front-runners like Edward Kennedy and Mario Cuomo to win their parties' nominations, and unexpected victories like those of
Harry Truman and Richard Nixon, show that any predictions made will have to be tentative.
Potential candidates for 2008
Other parties and independents
There has also been increased recent discussion about amending the Constitution to remove the
absolute requirement that only natural-born citizens may
become President. If such a change occurred in time for the 2008 elections, possible candidates who are naturalized citizens would include Democratic Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, born in
Canada, and Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, born in Austria.
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