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In statistical inference, confirmation
bias is a type of cognitive bias towards confirmation of the
hypothesis under study. See also bias (statistics).
In psychology, confirmation bias is a phenomenon whereby, in a variety of
settings, decision makers have been shown to notice more, assign more weight to, and actively seek out evidence that confirms
their claims and they tend to ignore and not seek that which might discount their claims. As such, it can be thought of as a form
of selection bias in collecting evidence.
Confirmation bias may be the cause of self-perpetuating and self-fulfilling social beliefs.
To compensate for this natural human tendency, the scientific
method is constructed so that we must try to disprove our hypotheses. See falsifiability. In addition, many legal and political systems depend on adversarial relations in order to
achieve just decisions despite the biases of the parties. In these systems it is assumed that it is beyond the ability of a
single human being to avoid confirmation bias, and hence the systems are in place so that different biases work against each
other.
General thinkers and decision makers should consider opposing views and try to think about why they might be wrong in order to
reduce overconfidence
effects.
This bias may occur at least partially because negatives are inherently more difficult to process mentally than positives.
See also: list of cognitive biases.
External links and references
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